Coming into the start of the NBA Playoffs in the Bubble, three teams were expected to claim the NBA Championship: the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks. It seemed likely it would be the battle of LA in the West, and the Bucks matching up against either the second-seeded Raptors or third-seeded Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Instead, the Denver Nuggets capitalized off the Clipper’s lack of chemistry and game 7 failures of their star players, and the fifth-seeded Miami Heat blitzed their way through the Milwaukee Bucks in a convincing five-game series, leading to a matchup against Boston.
For two games of the ECF, the Celtics played Celtics basketball for long enough to get the W, but still, even in those games, they didn’t play for the full 48 minutes that the Heat did every game.
Throughout the playoffs, the Celtics failed to close out games by not playing team first, smart basketball down the stretch. They stopped moving the ball, they played iso, hero ball, and more aggravating than anything, they chucked up stupid 3 pointers at the most inopportune times.
The final 5 minutes of Game 6 was accompanied by a hopeless plea for the Celtics to not, quite literally, throw away their season from 25-feet out. Yet, that’s exactly what they did, shoot 3-point shot after 3-point shot while the Heat drove to the basket and ran away with the game.
With 1:29 left in the third quarter, Boston trailed 86-79. In less than 45 seconds, the Celtics scored seven straight points in the paint (plus an and-one free throw) and tied the game. To start the fourth, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown put the Celtics up 96-90 with layups and a baseline jumper. Boston knew the formula to get back into the game, to play winning basketball, to force a game 7, and yet, despite this successful 16-4 run, they reverted from it when they needed it most.
Holding a six-point lead, Boston then overplayed on a defensive possession, double-teaming the driver, as they’ve done all series long, and allowed a wide-open 3 to Tyler Herro. Herro backed this up on the next possession by nailing a midrange jumper, letting the rookie get into a rhythm late in the match after having an off-game up to that point. The slight lead was gone and suddenly, the drive to the basket mentality all but disappeared. Tatum hit a questionable, double-covered 3 with 6 minutes to go in the contest to go up 100-98. He then got inside for a layup to get the Celtics to 102.
But after that, with a two-point deficit, Boston shot 3 after 3 and erased their chance at a game 7 in minutes. It was 104-102 Heat with 4:55 to go. By the 2:40 mark, the score had ballooned to 116-102 Heat. The Celtics missed 12 3-pointers in the fourth quarter, including 8 in the last 5:14 of the game. Had the Celtics redone their strategy earlier in the game to take the lead, Boston could have put themselves in a great position to force a deciding game in the series (they shot 8-13 from 2-pointers in the quarter). For comparison, Miami shot only 3 deep balls in the final quarter, making all of them.
For the game, Boston chucked up 46 3-point attempts, making 15, while Miami took 19 fewer attempts, making 13 of their 27. The emphasis on 3-point shooting down the stretch is obvious to see here, the only question is, why?
The refs were calling ticky-tack fouls all series long and to be frank, all Bubble the refereeing has been questionable (maybe the refs are getting tired of the bubble setting too). So, take advantage of the easy calls and drive the ball and get fouled! If they’re going to call ‘em easy, then drive! Yes, Bam is sitting down there, and yes, the refs quite egregiously failed to call fouls for the Celtics all series long (i.e. Brown getting clipped by Butler in midair in game 6, Theis getting murdered by the Heat and getting the foul called on him almost every game). But this series was not decided on bad refereeing, the Celtics could’ve done something about it, and didn’t.
To be fair, though Gordon Hayward’s presence helped, he was obviously not at 100%. If he was, that changes the whole complexion of this postseason run. Maybe Boston does close out Toronto earlier, or don’t fail in crunch time as much to the Heat.
Another thing, Jayson Tatum’s transcendence is still new. He has only been this guy, the guy since February of this year, back when LeBron himself recognized Tatum as “a problem.” This was the first time Tatum was expected to play like a superstar every night, and it has only been for the last 40 games or so of the NBA season. Next year will be the first season where he starts the year as the expected no. 1 guy on the team, expected All-star, and expected top-10-player in this league. Let’s not forget, to start this season, Kemba was the best player for the Celtics. Yet by season’s end, he was the 3rd choice offensively. Things evolved quickly.
Tatum tried playing like Kobe (one of his longtime idols and someone he trained with over previous offseasons) too much at the end of close games, which was very noticeable against the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. Playing the “best player on the team/court go iso and try to win the game” isn’t the go-to option for a couple of reasons. One, he’s just not there yet. That type of “give me the ball and I’ll go win the game” is reserved for the greatest players, the Jordan’s, Kobe’s, LeBron’s, of the world. I think Tatum is going to get there though. He’s a year or two away from being good enough for those bad iso’s being worth it. But more importantly two, it wasn’t necessary nor should it have been the way to go in any of those situations. His teammates weren’t playing bad and needing to be bailed out by his superior offensive skills. In fact, the reason the Celtics were in many of their games was due to team basketball, passing the rock, playing with movement.
Jaylen Brown’s progression continues to look good, but he needs to shoot more. Of the top four scorers in the series for the Celtics, he is the only one who shot better than 43%; and he finished with an extremely efficient 56% from the field and 50% from 3. Tatum might be the 1 on Boston going forward, but Brown needs to be more of a 1B than a 2 for this team to get better.
That being said, Smart was the Celtic’s best player in this series and probably the entire playoffs. He is nothing but a winner, a guy who does everything he can for his team while simultaneously being the heart and soul of this squad. His gritty demeanor and 110% effort all the time is going to be needed for Boston to take that step into NBA Championship territory.
What’s Next?
Going forward, Boston should try to add some shooters to their roster. Despite the 3-point prevalence of the Celtics, they lack something both the Lakers and the Heat have, a 3-point specialist. The Duncan Robinsons and Danny Greens of the world have the ability to give a team 12 points instantly any quarter, or just that clutch three when you need it, something that can win a game or even series. Perhaps more importantly than any potential big man pick ups may be a sharpshooter or two for the C’s.
Is leadership a question for this Celtics team going forward? Stevens was the unquestioned leader of his teams until Kyrie Irving showed up and he then had to learn how to manage superstar talent and personality for the first time. Now at season’s end, Kemba, Smart, Tatum, and Brown all have a significant leadership role themselves, perhaps complicating things on the court. The lockerroom arguments after game 2 of the ECF might have revealed some of this to the world. From an outsider’s perspective, Smart and Kemba might be the best leaders on the team. It makes sense, two veterans; one, a dog of a player whose goal is to just win, with a defense-first mentality, not necessarily the guy giving you 20+ points a night. And Kemba, an All-Star caliber player who finally has a team around him and just wants to win after playing in the void that was Charlotte for 8 years before coming here.
But the two best players going forward on Boston, and the two who should be the centerpieces of the franchise for the next decade, are Tatum and Brown. They are both young, so perhaps the responsibility of leading a team will develop soon. Time will tell in that regard. All I know is when your leader is not your best player in basketball, it can cause failures (I look prominently at the Westbrook and Durant Thunder when saying that).
The lack of a high-quality big man was noticeable in this series for Boston, especially as Bam Adebayo destroyed the Celtics in game 6. But we knew that all year, and since basically the departure of Kevin Garnett. Though Al Horford being on this team this season might’ve made the difference, a top-level big seems more attractive than ever for Boston. They are rare though, with AD, Embiid, KAT, Bam, Jokic, (and Giannis if you consider him a big) being the only elite bigs in the league. Should the Celtics take a swing at them? Embiid and KAT and likely the only gainable players, but would a trade even be worth it? Tatum and Brown are untouchables, something I can confidently say Celtics GM Danny Ainge already knows, so I’m not sure if the resources are on the table to even try a deal.
Even with no significant changes to the Celtics before next season, this squad should be right back in the mix of things, competing for a chance to make it to the NBA Finals. The continued growth of Tatum and Brown, mixed with the deep playoff experience and injury recovery time for Walker and Hayward should have Boston back in the Eastern Conference Finals again next year.
